From the very beginning I want to say that yesterday's missile attacks do not have any connection to the revenge for Crimean Bridge. Russia just wanted to collapse Ukrainian energetic system. And there is a reason to consider namely this version as the right one.
For some people launching a ballistic rocket sounds like playing a video game. Someone set up the coordinates, push the button and that`s all, rocket is launched. But everything is much more complicated.
Every rocket launch is a special operation by itself. Surveillance, checking of presence of physical objects that the rocket can "touch" on its way to the target like the building that is absent on the old map or high voltage column. Then there is a radio surveilance, anti air systems analysis and based on that data you need to build the corridor so the rocket flies through it without begin hit by anti air system or hit any object on its way.
Which means that every launch needs to be prepared in advance so that it can be successful. Of course you can always count on luck and mistakes of the enemy, but it is too expensive to shoot million dollar rockets just counting on luck, especially when you are hitting electrical stations. Such rockets are designed to hit headquarters, decision centers and other military objects that will help to demoralize troops(which we saw recently in Liman, Kharkiv district). This is how victory is earned.
But this is a long and difficult way and russian people are depressed, so ... so they decided to launch more rockets to Ukrainian energetic system. It was a strike not to the army, but to civilians. Because the army actually doesn`t care, do they have electricity or not, they have generators and StarLinks. Civilians are the other thing. After this you can actualyl forget that russia fight for "russian" people on the territory of Ukraine, they just want to destroy Ukrainian nation. And even if you are a collaborant, no one will help you, in Mariupol your house will be destroyed the same as a Ukrainian one ... and in Lviv you will freeze the same as Ukrainian patriot does.
What are the positive and negative concequences of this action?
First, it is the low efficiencty of rockets themselves. It seems that 50-60% of rockets were hit in the air and it shows that they weren`t looking for the weak spot and tried to find the best route to launch rockets, they just tried to load our anti air defence system with the amount of rockets so that at least some of them reach their targets.
In order to undertand the costs, X-101 rocket costs 13 million dollars, Caliber costs 6.5 million, Iskander 3 million, Onyx 1.25 million and H-22 costs one million dollars. So I`d say that it was the most expensive and foolish usage of strategic rockets to cheer up russian citizens so that they can say "we bomb Ukriainians to the stone age ... Ukrainians, what`s with your face?".
In order to understand how it looks, imagine that instead of squad of machine gun troopers the object would be attacked by the squad of snipers. Yes, if they begin to shoot simmultaniously they will shoot someone, but what`s next? It is useless to spend the whole squad of snipers to capture an object. And even regarding that russia has a really big amount of rockets, after all it is finite and they don`t have enough parts these days to keep producing them so they have to use extra parts from the rockets that are in the storage. And with each rocket launch this problem gets more and more serious for them. Each rockets that is loaded now, is made worse than the previous one because of lack of spare parts.
Disadvantage of this situation is that the big amount of rockets can really damage our energetic system. Several hits or even several destroyed stations won`t do a big harm for us since we can get the energy in the other sources, but if such strikes become massive, it will be very complicated to restore the whole system. Will russia be able to damage the system so much? We`ll see. I hope not.
If the energetic system stands then it will be the most expensive firework in the history of russia. And as a result at worst we will just get electricity economy or even as it was in Kharkiv everything will be fixed within 24 hours. So if great Russian rocket army will lose to Ukrainian emergency services it means a total loss for russians, because on the front they already get their ass kicked and they spent millions on rockets for us just to spend some time without electricity.
So we can see how they change their slogans from "we`ll take Kiev in three days" to "let us hit electric station with strategic rocket, let they spend some time without electricity".
Source: Serzh Marko, soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
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